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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd