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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

But the current field is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime strugglers rising together. In an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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