Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
